Roulette Scams And Fraud

John Solitude's Roulette Scams & Fraud Report

Many new and uninformed, but even intermediate players hope or think it would be possible to play one self to riches on roulette without any risk being involved.

We formally decline this possibility is likely to happen in today's modern casino environment.

Below you'll find a summarized round up of the most common scams used by commercial roulette strategy sellers on the internet. Please refer to our guide in the download section for a more detailed report and how you can counteract a scammer.

Yes, there are people who have won large amounts of money while playing roulette, but the real story is they also risked tons of money in the process. The gamble could easily have turned sour also. And of course, casino's will do everything in their legal power to dazzle the players with large amounts of money that have been won: the full story is for every winner there are many people who have lost serious amounts of money.

If you want to know in detail why the above statement will remain true until eternity when it comes to roulette (unless the rules would be changed in behalf of the player), please consult our guide before splashing out on some roulette strategy seller who will promise you roses to make a quick buck.


The scam report: the ugly, the ugly and the ugly


The classic all time favorite scam

A classic scam is stating all kinds of variations on 'This system has won ... amount of money'. Sure, but where are the details: how many bets were actually placed, how large was the bankroll, what was the mathematical probability of winning or loosing the bet on the total amount of all the placed bets?

Even if the probability of winning was low, this still isn't prove what so ever the positive result was achieved due to the purchased system or device, because in the short and medium time span it is statistically impossible to distinguish between having (very) good luck or achieving a good result by applying the purchased product.

Of course a seller will advertise using the most seducing gain figures, but the player has NO means what so ever to investigate if the claim is genuine before purchasing the product (and finally finding out it doesn't work in the long run.)

Serious research in any case involves using your own spin files or the ones obtained from an independent internet database.

If a system is completely risk free it shouldn't make any difference what so ever if you place a 1000 or 10.000.000 bets.

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The video demonstration scam

If you are interested in buying a strategy dealing with visual prediction or computer ballistics: ask the seller to observe several live sessions in which the seller will play with his own money demonstrating his skills. During the course of our research two 'visual prediction' players stepped up - often using knowledge they expensively paid for - taking our statistical challenge and both failed miserably to achieve a better hit result than mathematically could be expected in slightly less than 1.000 spins. In fact, one could even have done better by only applying plain probability theory in his betting choice.

Demanding a 'live' demonstration in a real casino environment instead of ordering an easily forged DVD or internet video demonstration should not be a problem: if the seller claims you can win consistently by applying his device (computer ballistics) or strategy (visual prediction) in a real casino environment, using common sense, for the seller a 'live' demonstration would be a win-win situation. The seller would be making good money for himself while doing the demonstration, and if he's successful over a longer amount of time he may even add a customer to his database. This proposal would be no different than a merchant demonstrating what his product or idea can do in a 'live' situation.

If a seller would really be convinced of the consistent winnings a live demonstration in a casino should not pose a problem at all. If the seller claims to be interested in helping other people to win in the long run, even traveling expenses should not be a problem for the seller: after all, if the seller claims his product is a 'genuine winner', he should be able in a very short period to become a millionaire more than willing to travel around international casinos to help others around, if only to prove the product is 'genuine' or for self esteem. Of course the opposite is the case: sellers are not millionaires due to gambling but they aspire to become a bit closer to millionaires by being very successful as a scammer. If they were successful in gambling, they wouldn't have become sellers in the first place. If a seller does not agree to do a 'live' demonstration in a casino environment using his own money, we have just given enough reasonable arguments to prove beyond any reasonable doubt it is a scammer.

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Reverse engineering scams

One of the most dangerous scams is the 'reverse-engineering' of systems. In this case a system or devices developer will deliberately choose roulette sessions on which his system performed well, as such trying to mislead the public into thinking the system is profitable in general. The fraud is very deliberate and could lead to serious financial losses by the purchaser, because the supplied disinformation results in a false sense of security. The purchaser of the system or device will be likely to think he can simply not fail if he only uses the product correctly in any session he decides to do so.

Never believe a system works based on a supplied sample spin file or a video demonstration by the seller, nor use a supplied 'random' number generator which comes with the system itself.

To obtain real spin files go to www.random.org - they offer an excellent random number generator in which you can generate random numbers for French or American roulette.

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Bias scams

We have stated it many times before for those who have ears: bias techniques are old hat. Of course roulette wheels are human made devices so they can never be absolutely perfect. The fact is: today in modern professional wheels space age technology is being used. Large statistical tests were applied before a wheel ended up in a casino and while it's in the casino statistical monitoring continues in real time or on a sample basis. It would be ridiculous to believe if you know that today's engineers are able to construct a vehicle and drop it on the right spot on a planet millions of miles away, roulette wheel manufacturers who often have decennia of experience in wheel development would not be able to build a wheel which is very near perfectly random for the time it will be used in the casino, before it is replaced. Most scammers will provide in a DVD or a home environment demonstration, but they'll fail to mention they are working with a wheel which is out of date and could only very scarcely be found in real casinos or even worse: they bought a second hand wheel after it was thrown out of the casino before it became unreliable. Providing in a demonstration on DVD or in home environment doesn't prove anything what so ever: the real test is real wheels in today's casino environment.

If there would be genuine bias introduced over time the casino will be the first to notice, not the player. That's why there are professional second hand wheels to be obtained in the first place: they do not longer match the high standard the casino sets for their equipment, or they regularly change wheels to prevent security breaches.

Imagine yourself in the position of the casino executive: would you risk losing large amounts of money to high rollers because you didn't regularly check, maintain and replace your gambling equipment? Any casino manager who would be so negligent would be fired immediately. Other sellers will argue they could spot a bias in the short run: nonsense. There is no way what so ever to statistically accurate determine bias in the short run and not one qualified mathematician nor statistician would disagree with this statement. If there are visible flaws, these flaws would also be spotted by the casino security and the wheel would simply be shut down. Determining bias the right way is a very time extensive occupation which you couldn't do alone unless you would have enormous amounts of time at your disposal. You would not only need to spend countless days tracking outcomes before making any bet what so ever. In our guide in the chapter on 'What is standard deviation?' you'll find the story of Joseph Jaggers who hired six clerks full time during five weeks to track the tables before being able to place one bet. In the far majority of the cases you will find there is no bias or the bias isn't severe enough to exploit.

Another problem few times mentioned by sellers of bias related strategies: in the process, only observing for numerous days, recording outcomes and never playing, it wouldn't be long before the eye in the sky notices what you are up to. Even if you wouldn't draw attention from security: today's high tech casinos have more data than the bias spotter at all times. More data means the statistical analysis is more accurate. Sure, there is still a very small chance a bias might occur but in the far majority of the cases the bias will not be sufficient enough to be profitable compared to the house edge or the time you would need to invest to find a profitable biased wheel could take an eternity. And, remember at all times: there is no way what so ever a bias spotter, a visual prediction player, a computer seller or a dealer pretending he can deliberately hit pockets or sectors could EVER prove in the short run they have an edge because it would simply not be possible to distinguish between having a good lucky run or actually having an edge.

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Computer devices scams

Inspired by the book 'The Eudaemonic Pie' by author Thomas A. Bass, still a couple of computer device sellers are openly operating, advertising and selling on the internet. They all set up sales websites and are regularly present in gambling forums to hustle for customers. In several occasions they were exposed in gambling forums for having posted positive feedback about their own computers but under different nicknames to increase sales. Dissatisfied customers were barked at by one developer when they came forward in the Gambler Glen Forum.

It is rather amusing (and bad for business) computer device sellers do not get along with each other, obviously because they are competitors in the same small market (the customers who would fork out to buy such an expensive device).

The very fact sellers spend an awful lot of time in forums debating their computers is probably the best proof it isn't likely to work in a real casino environment, otherwise why would one even bother going into endless discussions, but rather travel international casinos in stead to use the device to one's own benefit instead of spending time selling it. One seller also refused to have his computer seriously tested by researchers for a tv-show because he didn't want to expose himself. Kind of rare for a person who even sets up a website to promote it's very existence.

It is however a fact that in previous decennia working computer devices have been reported to successfully predict outcomes with a larger probability than expected, but unfortunately too few, missing or opposing details are know (amount of played spins, initial bankroll, hit-miss ratio, mathematical probability of winning-losing within the time played) to do any serious research. Successful attempts are few and only scarcely documented when it comes to real environment appliance. Of course the public doesn't get noticed of the attempts which failed due to security detection or failure of the device.

The introduction of the new low profile wheels and scalloped pockets, also significantly increased the amount and variation of scatter which can be expected. Depending on the velocity, the material and weight of the ball and the angle of impact, a ball can scatter, wobble out of the pocket (scalloped pockets) or drop dead.

A common scam is to provide in a live or a DVD demonstration on a very specifically chosen or deep pocket wheel in a home environment. The wheel used for the demonstration could be severely biased or tilted which could only be determined by serious statistical testing by the purchaser BEFORE the seller demonstrates the use of his machine on this particular wheel.
If the wheel is biased (some numbers will naturally appear more than others due to wear of the wheel) or tilted (resulting in the ball leaving the upper track at the same spot, as such making the prediction less hard than on a properly balanced set up wheel which you can expect to find in casinos) and the seller is aware of this, the impression is given to the purchaser the machine is predicting the outcomes, while it's actually the principal of bias that is at work. One seller even offered (of course paid) betting advice based on a 300 spin file supplied by the customers. This is a scam because a 300 spin file is FAR too short to analyze or advice anything statistically credible what so ever.

Of course, if the seller is convinced of the merits of his machine you as a customer should always demand a demonstration by the seller in a real casino environment. If the seller agrees, pick the wheel yourself when entering the casino. And here comes the first hurdle: the use of such devices is explicitly illegal in the far majority of the venues; as a result detection will lead to confiscation and possible law suite. The correct use of computer devices needs a player who is standing relatively stable and close to the wheel itself, not noticeably tracking the wheel and accurately introducing the data in the hidden device. Bets can only be laid down after the dealer has launched the ball in the very last seconds before the 'no more bets' call, because the device needs time to measure the velocity speed of each individual spin. Remember, at all times you are in a heavily security scanned area while pulling this one off. Casino security is aware of the existence of such devices and as such a player who is constantly standing in the same spot, with an earpiece or nervously reaching into his pockets, each time laying down the bets on the very last moment will draw attention of security in no time. If the time is too short between the launch of the ball and the 'no more bets' announcement, the prognosis will not be accurate enough. And, when you are dealing with a low profile wheel with scalloped pockets a computer can NEVER predict exactly where the ball might hit a certain pocket resulting in more or less scatter on impact which will downsize the hit-miss ratio. This is the second reason why computer device developers rather like to make money by selling the device, in stead of using it themselves: of course the risk is far less if you make money by selling such a device rather than using it yourself in a real casino environment.

When you would still feel inclined to research this possibility, before cashing out (expensively) ALWAYS demand a demonstration in a real live environment on a wheel you pick yourself, and do never forget it would be impossible in the short run to determine if the seller really has an edge or not. Never pay cash in hand. Always compare the amount of 'predicted' hits with the sequential and binomial probability figures. For instance in the short, nor in the medium term achieving a 'predicted' hit of one out of 23 doesn't prove anything what so ever. If you play a certain section or numbers again and again you may well achieve such a result also by chance. In the short run one could only state the obtained result is more or less probable, but even less likely outcomes can occur randomly in the short run. Remember, even when you would not use such a machine, if you lay down your bets on several numbers at each spin, mathematically you'll get it right sooner or later: a machine is only 'working' if it would allow to significantly and consistently achieve a better prediction in outcomes in the long run than only using plain probability theory.

Some customers who light hearted bought such a machine only find out the hard way it was near impossible to use in a real environment or got caught in the process. Of course sellers will try and seduce you by suggesting consistent profit in the future, or will refer to the successful use in a real environment in a few cases of which important details are unknown (initial bankroll amount, amount of bets placed, probability vs 'predicted' results, ...).

Again, the most reasonable question is: if the machine was working why would a seller invest a large amount of energy setting up a website and spend time seeking customers instead of using it himself and playing himself to riches so he wouldn't be financially dependent on selling. The fact is: computer device roulette sellers know very well casino security is very strict so it's far less risky to make money selling such a device rather than using it.

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Forum scammers

On any gambling forum on the internet you'll find members who behave as normal visitors, but they are only there for one purpose: it is to act as a covert intermediary (read: sales booster) for some scammer.

Typically they will do so by:

  • Placing forum threads or launching topics informing or stating they've bought or heard about this or that kind of system or strategy that works well. The purpose is to raise curiosity and interest amongst members and to lead forum visitors to a specific website offering a certain commercial gambling strategy. Typically, when a member is sufficiently curious one will be approached by personal messages or e-mail to avoid public exposure by more critical members of the same forum. It is rather easy to impress someone who does not have basic knowledge about math or stats in e-mails or personal messages, it's far more difficult to have a public discussion without being exposed.
  • Posing as an experienced and successful player who made plenty using this or that kind of strategy with very good results. This is a common 'modus operandi' regarding strategies based on visual or computer ballistics. It should be very clear that there exists NOT ONE official scientifically verified positive result on a large sample when it comes to visual prediction / ballistics. We can reasonably expect with all the interest generated in gambling, even in academic circles such a positive scientific study would have surfaced by now.
    This was only the case when the M.I.T. - gamblers were exposed using a sophisticated counting and betting method for Blackjack. As a result casinos took countermeasures ranging from multiple decks to random cutting and (re)shuffling.
  • When these members are asked about the basic information (mathematical, statistical, physical information) about this miraculous roulette strategy, only 'teasers' will be shared - which would certainly not be enough to seriously evaluate the claim.

The basic psychological idea why such intermediaries resign in gambling forums is always to raise interest and curiosity amongst forum visitors, so eventually some would be sufficiently convinced to purchase the full package in the long run.

The best way of exposing such a member is demanding proof by providing in a demonstration in a real environment. Let's face it: if the claim is true, this would be a win-win situation for the person who makes the claim - doing a demonstration would be profitable - and one would surely have won more than enough previously to pay for travelling expenses. If the member refuses, you know reasonable enough.

Back to reason: If you would have made plenty using this or that kind of consistent winning system would you choose to

  • a) spend day in, day out in different internet gambling forums arguing about your certain win strategy, trying to convince members to look in to this or that kind (always commercial) strategy
  • b) travel international casinos, make as much as you can, only share the secret with people very close to you hoping casinos would never find out.

If you would chose option 1, it's clear you really are an idiot or you have lost far more than you are willing to admit and now have to make some cheap bucks.

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Conclusion

We can warn until eternity for scammers, conmen and roulette strategy sellers: the basic issue is the wide presence of these people is an alarming fact that there are a lot of readers out there who feel tempted to put their money in scammers hands.

If you have lost large amounts of money while gambling, how difficult it might seam: try to come to terms with this, do not chase your losses because the chance for complete financial ruin is very real if you would continue. If you put your money in scammer's hands: on top of your gambling losses you'll also add the money you've spend on the scammer.

This is the main reason why some players become sellers anyway: to support there (previous) gambling addiction. The smart sellers only wish to take financial advantage of not informed players. The fact is: if you gamble, per definition you have chosen to take risk, if there is no risk it is not a gamble. And, if there would be a certain win system each time you play, you wouldn't have a large crowd of sellers: these people would be happily playing away, not caring for sales, nor spending energy in setting up websites to hustle you as a customer.

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